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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still